February 15th, 2016 | Rates! Rates! Rates!
"Days like today can't help but give the average market watcher a bit of a sinking feeling." An overview of his analysis follows:
Are Thursday's lowest yields in years were perhaps a sign of the final throes of market capitulation?
Did that wash out all the trades that were piling on to the insane momentum and are we now destined to move resolutely back in the other direction?
At the risk of bearing bad news, that can't ever be ruled out. I would personally have an easier time ruling it out if stocks and oil prices didn't simultaneously experience a double bottom in line with late January lows. As long as it looks like they're contemplating holding their ground there, bond markets will remain at risk for further correction.
The potential saving grace is that much of today's bounce could simply have been driven by stock and oil traders covering short positions. That would mean they are buying (thus pushing prices up) in order to close out their bearish bets ahead of the long weekend. We will talk more about some of the technical mileposts we can use to gauge which way momentum is leaning on Tuesday, but certainly, that will include a big line in the sand...in 10yr yields."